We are at a turning point in public health, and it represents one of the largest market disruptions of the decade. The crisis is clear: around 880 million adults worldwide are classified as obese - nearly 1 in 7 adults. In 2022, 2.5 billion adults were overweight.
The International Diabetes Federation projects that the number of people living with diabetes will reach 783 million by 2045, up 537 million in 2021. In the United States alone, the economic burden of treating obesity-related diseases is estimated at $173 billion annually. These conditions feed into the world's costliest chronic diseases - cardiovascular, chronic kidney, and neurodegenerative disorders - which collectively cost trillions in global healthcare.
GLP-1 receptor agonists are more than just a new class of drugs. They are a breakthrough solution that marks a pivotal moment for modern public health. The market is already exploding - estimated at $53.46 billion in 2024, it is projected to surge to $156.71 billion by 2030. The anti-obesity medication market alone, of which GLP-1s are the dominant component, is forecast to reach between $60 billion and $100 billion by the end of the decade. Last Friday Eli Lilly, makers of GLP-1 weightloss drugs Zepbound and diabetes treatment Mounjaro briefly became the first $1 trillion valued healthcare company.
However, without significant innovation in access, policy, and cost, this potential will be squandered. Projections show two remarkably different futures. The first is a baseline scenario where obesity rates continue their relentless climb. The alternative futures, however, show that with broader adoption of GLP-1s, we can fundamentally reverse this trend.
This challenge is amplified by a critical reality: the individuals who would benefit most from GLP-1s (those with obesity and type 2 diabetes) are often the most socially and economically disadvantaged. Making these medications affordable and accessible is therefore pivotal in the success of GLP-1s. Reducing rates of obesity and diabetes could have a powerful ripple effect, easing pressure on healthcare systems, boosting workforce productivity, and improving quality of life across society.
Ada Ventures - Adult obesity rates in the U.S. could change between 2023 and 2035, based on different levels of GLP-1 medication use. The model uses WHO data as a baseline and adjusts projections using logistic adoption patterns and a 28% effectiveness rate for GLP-1s. Lifestyle adoption (30%) is a baseline number used to show how obesity rates can be affected by GLP-1 intervention and adoption.
Using the United States market as a proxy, the data illustrates very different futures for obesity prevalence, depending on different GLP-1 adoption rates. The "Baseline" trajectory shows a future where United States adult obesity continues to rise toward 46%. In contrast, a "Lifestyle" scenario with 30% adoption begins to bend the curve downwards. The most dramatic shift occurs under a "Universal" scenario; with 70% adoption, we could drive obesity rates down to 36.6% by 2035.
This effectively erases two decades of epidemic growth. This difference in prevalence also translates into millions of lives, quantifying the real-world impact of broader GLP-1 adoption. This forecast quantifies the cumulative impact of the choice. Limited, "Medical" access would avert fewer than 18 million cases of obesity over the next decade. However, driving broader adoption unlocks a massive opportunity for public health and investors, potentially unlocking trillions of dollars of returns in emerging and developed economies.
This dominance creates a clear opportunity for well-capitalized entrants to attack incumbent weaknesses in efficacy, convenience (oral vs injection), tolerability and other areas.
Furthermore, the therapeutic applications for GLP-1s are rapidly expanding beyond weight loss. The FDA approved Novo Nordisk's Wegovy to reduce cardiovascular risk in adults with established cardiovascular disease and obesity. Emerging evidence also points to benefits on systemic inflammation (e.g., reductions in hs‑CRP), endothelial function, and neuronal signaling pathways tied to neuroinflammation.
For investors and founders, this creates a rich landscape of opportunity. For investors and founders, the primary opportunity doesn’t just lie in innovating the next generation of molecules, but in building the critical enabling infrastructure around them: manufacturing capacity, novel delivery technologies, diagnostics, and real-world evidence platforms.
This is particularly true since increasing age is the biggest risk factor for developing obesity. As the population over 60 surges toward 2 billion by 2050, systemic tools that promote healthy ageing at scale are critical.
The GLP-1 market is defined by a central paradox: a breakthrough in therapeutic potential is held back by profound economic barriers. This has created a two-tiered system where access to transformative health outcomes is dictated more by wealth than by need, a direct contradiction to our mission of addressing the social determinants of health.
Furthermore, the staggering price disparity, where treatments in the United States cost nearly ten times that in other developed nations, represents a significant market failure. The real-world consequence is that cost has become the single greatest barrier to care. The price disparity, where treatments in the United States cost nearly ten times that in other developed nations, represents a significant market failure and underscores how broken health economics are.
Note: List prices in $USD based on web searches as of August 15, 2023. Prices are for one-month supply of Ozempic 1mg, Rybelus 7mg, Wegovy 2.4mg, and Mounjaro 15mg. Some drugs are not available in all countries and prices were unable to be found in other countries. Some drugs are approved for diabetes and prescribed off-label for weight loss. Source KFF analysis
Graph: KFF/HST 2023 datasetList prices as of August 15, 2023, the latest comprehensive cross‑country comparison available as of 2025. These 2023 prices are the latest comprehensive cross-country comparison. However, net prices in the U.S. have since fallen substantially, from approximately $12,000–$14,000 per year in 2022 to a current estimated $8,000 to $9,000 per year. Medicare also negotiated a 71% discount (to $274–$386/month) that takes effect in 2027.
to make production radically more efficient. For example, Culture Biosciences, who use cloud native software to reduce the complexity of biomanufacturing.
to improve convenience and accessibility. For example, Nuclera, who accelerate protein discovery.
that make treatment worthwhile. For example, Huma, whose platform can be used for applications from rapidly building health apps to launching AI-first screening and diagnostic tools
in achieving and maintaining their health goals
Rather than developing another expensive injectable, OMP's Sirona tackles two major gaps:
of adults who are overweight but can't access current GLP-1s.
of patients who stop GLP-1 therapy maintain their weight loss long term.
in at-risk adults to avoid escalation to GLP-1 therapy
Their hydrogel technology stays in the stomach for days rather than minutes, costs half as much as branded alternatives, and showed strong efficacy in clinical trials.
Companies like Noom have demonstrated success here. Noom reports users lose 48 % more weight versus other GLP-1 medications, and 42% of users maintained weight loss two years after using their platform. It is worth noting that whilst behaviour does need to be addressed, obesity is a chronic disease that for a large number of people needs constant intervention to prevent weight regain.
This new economy will touch multiple sectors. In healthcare, it opens therapeutic windows for cardiometabolic health and longevity domains. However, the impact on consumer markets could be even larger, creating opportunities in:
The difference hinges less on inventing yet another molecule and more on solving access, cost, manufacturing, delivery, and long‑term adherence. That is where the real value and impact lies.
Building the bio‑infrastructure, digital behaviour loops, and post‑weight‑loss ecosystems that let these drugs deliver long-term results. For Ada Ventures, the goal is clear: back companies that democratise access to GLP‑1s, unlock capacity, and extend the platform beyond obesity into systemic health. Prioritise infrastructure and equity over exclusivity. GLP-1s represent not merely a market explosion, but a fundamental societal reset.